A new poll released this week by Latino Decisions and the Latino Victory Project challenges previous polls in the San Diego mayoral and shows David Alvarez with a commanding lead over Kevin Faulconer among Latino voters who represent 1 in 5 San Diego voters.

Among likely Latino voters, Alvarez was favored by a margin of 75% to just 10% for Faulconer and 15% undecided. The 65-point gap in favor of Alvarez directly challenges the 4-point gap in favor of Alvarez among Latinos reported in the Survey USA/Union Tribune news poll. Even the newest PPP poll showing a dead heat citywide under-estimates Alvarez lead among Latinos finding a 63-28 lead or a 35-point gap.

The LD/LVP poll also demonstrates Latino voters are following the election closely, however the degree of outreach and mobilization to Latinos has lagged.

Overall, 74% of likely Latino voters say they have been following news about the mayoral elections somewhat or very closely. Further, 64% say they are very enthusiastic about the chance to vote in the upcoming mayoral election. One draw for Latinos is likely the opportunity to elect the first Latino mayor of San Diego.

The survey asked Latinos how important is it that San Diego elects its first Latino mayor and overall 73% said it was somewhat or very important suggesting the same patterns of heightened interest and voting could be at play in the San Diego runoff election.

However voter outreach and voter mobilization remain critical and to date, only 37% of likely Latino voters said they had been contacted by a campaign or candidate asking them to vote. If the Latino vote is to be decisive, voter mobilization efforts by both campaigns will be critical.

“Historically Latino candidates for mayor have been successful in mobilizing and winning the Latino vote and this new poll demonstrates the same trend in San Diego. David Alvarez is overwhelmingly going to win the Latino vote and this could very well propel him to victory. The critical factor is going to be the rate of Latino mobilization and voter turnout. If Latino turnout is high, the data suggest Alvarez should win,” said Matt Barreto, co-founder of Latino Decisions.

The Issues

Not surprising, Latino voters rank jobs and the economy as the top issue for the next Mayor of San Diego to address. Overall, 37% said jobs and the economy, followed by improving education (17%), repairing the city’s image (13%), housing and city services (10%), pollution and environmental issues (6%).

In addition to these issues sure to be on the agenda of the next Mayor, the survey also asked Latino voters how they reacted to a city council immigration resolution from March 2013. The resolution, introduced by Alvarez called on the city of San Diego to support national immigration reform efforts to specifically include a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. At the time, Faulconer voted against the resolution saying he opposed the path-to-citizenship language in the resolution and wanted more focus on border security. When asked about each candidate’s position on the March 2013 immigration resolution, 61% of likely Latino voters said Alvarez position made them more enthusiastic about his candidacy compared to 5% who felt less enthusiastic. In contrast, only 9% said Faulconer’s position made them feel more enthusiastic while 52% said it made them less enthusiastic towards his candidacy.

Why the Other Polls Have Bad Latino Samples

The Latino Decisions/Latino Victory Project poll interviewed a total of 400 Latinos identified as likely voters in the mayoral election by landline and cell phone, and offered surveys in either English or Spanish to Latino voters and contains a margin of error of +/- 4.2%. In contrast the Survey USA/UT poll interviewed an estimated 103 Latino voters, in English only, and contains a margin of error of +/- 9.6%. The PPP poll interviewed an estimated 99 Latino voters, in English only, and contains a margin of error of +/- 9.7%.

In San Diego, Latinos account for 20% of all registered voters, and poor estimates of the Latino vote can significantly alter the overall polling estimates. For example, using the Latino Decisions polling data for a more accurate portrayal of the Latino vote suggests that the Survey USA/UT poll overstates Faulconer’s support by 6 points citywide, and understates Alvarez’ support by 5 points citywide. Rather than a 53-37 margin, the actual margin may be 47-42.

“In comparing our Latino data to other polls have that been conducted in San Diego there is no question that the other pollsters have completely missed the Latino vote. Pre-election polls in November 2013 underestimated Alvarez by 10 points and based on their current methodology, the other polls are greatly underestimating Alvarez due to their small and non-representative Latino samples,” said Gary Segura, co-founder of Latino Decisions