By Arturo Castañares
Editor-at-Large

A new poll released this week shows incumbents San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria and County Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer are both vulnerable to losing their respective re-elections, and voters are evenly split over City Attorney candidates in the November elections.

The survey, conducted by San Diego pollster Competitive Edge Research, surveyed likely voters about three of the top political campaigns in San Diego, including the race for Mayor, County Supervisor, and City Attorney.

SAN DIEGO MAYOR

The poll shows only 40.4% of respondents said they would vote for Gloria today compared to 31.6% for challenger Larry Turner, and 27.9% saying they were still unsure which candidate to support. 

Turner, a current San Diego Police community service officer and former US Marine Corps Lt. Colonel, only spent $7,500 leading up to the March 5th Primary Election where he came in second to Gloria to earn a spot in the November General Election. 

Gloria only garnered 49.9% of the vote in the Primary Election where more than half of the voters chose comparatively unknown and underfunded candidates. 

57.4% of the respondents in the poll identified “reducing political corruption” as the most important issue to address, followed by “reducing local government spending” with 27.3% saying it is important. 

When asked about their opinion on “any real estate deals recently entered into by the City of San Diego” only 3.1% had a positive opinion of the deals and 32% had a negative view. 

Respondents mostly held Gloria responsible for the controversial real estate deals, with 44.1% blaming the Mayor and 22.3% holding the City Council responsible. 

Gloria has been criticized for his handling of the 101 Ash building debacle, his selection of a developer for the Sports Arena site, and a recent proposal to open a 1,000-bed homeless shelter inside of a warehouse on Kettner Ave near the airport. 

COUNTY SUPERVISOR, DISTRICT 3

In the race for County Supervisor in District 3, only 23.3% of the respondents said they would vote for incumbent Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer while 30.2% would vote for her opponent, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, but nearly half, 46.5%, said they were still undecided between the two well-known candidates. 

The race between Lawson-Remer and Faulconer did not appear on the March 5th Primary Election ballot because, under County elections rules, a race goes straight to the General Election when there are only two candidates running for a County Board seat. 

Lawson-Remer, a Democrat first elected in 2020, is endorsed by the Democratic Party, Planned Parenthood, the Sierra Club, labor unions, and the San Diego Union-Tribune, among others.

In 2020, Lawson-Remer defeated first-term incumbent Supervisor Kristin Gaspar, a Republican, by a margin of 58.1% to 41.8%. 

Faulconer, who served as San Diego Mayor from 2014 to 2020, is endorsed by the Lincoln Club Business League, the San Diego County Deputy District Attorneys Association, the Downtown San Diego Partnership PAC, and the California Women’s Leadership Association. 

In 2021, Faulconer ran to replace Governor Gavin Newsom in a special recall election and came in second place in San Diego County behind radio personality Larry Elder but the vote to recall Newsom failed 42.8% to 57.1%. 

District 3 includes the coastal areas of Coronado, La Jolla, Solana Beach, and Carlsbad, as well as the inland areas of Carmel Valley, Mira Mesa, Rancho Peñasquitos, and Rancho Santa Fe.  

The outcome of the Supervisor’s race could tip the balance on the County Board where current members are split 3-2 between Democrats and Republicans with Nora Vargas and Monica Montgomery Steppe joining Lawson-Remer, and Republicans Joel Anderson and Jim Desmond being in the minority. 

Political observers expect the race will see overall campaign expenditures of several millions of dollars. 

Incumbents Vargas and Anderson also face re-election campaigns but both are expected to win second terms. 

Anderson will face off against Democrat Gina Jacobs in his safe Republican district, and Vargas is being challenged by US Army veteran, Republican Alejandro Galicia, in her safe Democratic district. 

SAN DIEGO CITY ATTORNEY

The poll also included the citywide election of the next San Diego City Attorney between current Chief Deputy City Attorney Heather Ferbert and State Assemblyman and former City Councilman Brian Maienschein to replace two-term incumbent City Attorney Mara Elliott who is banned from running again under the City's term limits.

Respondents were split nearly evenly where 23.2% said they would support Maienschein compared to 21.8% for Ferbert, but more than 55% were still undecided. 

Ferbert, a Democrat who has never served in elected office, has worked for the City Attorney's office since 2014 after six years of private practice. In addition to her work for the City, Ferbert also teaches law school classes at the University of San Diego School of Law.

Maienschein has served six, two-year terms in the State Assembly since first being elected in 2012 and previously served two four-year terms on the City Council from 2000 to 2008. Maienschein was a registered Republican until 2019 when he became a Democrat.

Although both candidates are Democrats, Maienschein won the endorsement of the San Diego County Democratic Party, the San Diego Police Officers' union, Planned Parenthood, and San Diego-Imperial Counties Labor Council of unions.

Ferbert is supported by Elliott, the San Diego Deputy City Attorney's union, and the San Diego Union-Tribune.

All of the candidates will appear on the November 5th General Election ballot.

The poll surveyed likely voters in San Diego from May 6-15, 2024 and has a margin of error of ±4.8%.