Two-to-one preference for Democrat is nearly identical to intentions before passage
PRINCETON, NJ — Hispanic voters nationwide haven’t shifted their congressional voting preferences since the signing of Arizona’s new immigration law on April 23. Their preference for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate, 61% to 32%, in April 23 to June 8 interviewing almost identically matches the 60% to 32% margin recorded between March 1 and April 22. White voters and black voters also haven’t changed their voting intentions.
The Arizona immigration statute generated substantial news coverage during the time when it first became law, including critical commentary from President Obama himself. Some news coverage focused on the possible political implications of the law for the Hispanic vote this fall. Because the Arizona legislature that passed the law was Republican-controlled and because Democrats have been among the most vocal critics of the law, some observers hypothesized that Democrats could gain and Republicans could lose among Hispanic voters as a result.
But that does not appear to be the case — at least to this point in time.
That said, President Obama’s job approval rating is down among Hispanics this year. This drop appears to have begun prior to the April 23 signing of the new Arizona law. It should be noted that the drop in Obama’s approval rating between January and May of this year was primarily among Hispanics who chose to be interviewed in Spanish, while the current sample of registered-voter Hispanics includes significantly fewer of this group.
Hispanics are slightly less likely to say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting this year, compared with whites or blacks. Enthusiasm among Hispanics ticked up very slightly between the two periods, while enthusiasm dwindled slightly among whites and blacks. These changes are not substantial enough to suggest major changes in the political climate.
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking March 1-June 8, 2010, with a random sample of Hispanic registered voters, aged 18 and older.
