By Arturo Castañares
Publisher

The unexpected announcement on Friday that San Diego County Supervisor Nora Vargas will resign from office just a month after being re-elected to a second four-year term set off a scramble among potential candidates wanting to replace her.

Vargas, 52, sent out emails and a press release announcing that she would not be sworn in for her second term which starts on January 6, 2025, after winning her re-election campaign in the November election by a margin of 62% to 38% with 127,708 votes.

Nora Vargas

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"After very careful consideration, I’ve decided to conclude my tenure as County Supervisor, completing my first term this January 6, 2025," Vargas wrote in a statement released early Friday morning. "Due to personal safety and security reasons, I will not take the oath of office for a second term."

Vargas, a staunch Democrat, did not provide any details of any threats or concerns about her safety which sent political observers into speculation after her sudden announcement.

Just as the public was caught off guard on the Friday before Christmas, two sources within the County confirmed to La Prensa San Diego that even her staff was not in the loop on the decision that directly impacts their jobs.

Staff received a meeting notice early Friday morning and told to report to the Library within the County Administration Building. The staff were met by the County Clerk and HR staff.

“Her staff found out at the same time everyone else did,” one well-placed source told La Prensa San Diego just minutes after the announcement.

Vargas did not notify her staff before her announcement and she did not attend the meeting to tell her staff personally.

The County Board of Supervisors are the elected officials who oversee the functions of the County government’s 20,000 employees with an annual budget of over $8.5 billion.

First elected to the Board in 2020, Vargas had previously been elected to the Southwestern College Board of Trustees in 2014 and 2018.

Under the County’s Charter, the remaining Supervisors could appoint someone to Vargas’ seat within 30 days of the vacancy occurring.

Given the political makeup of the remaining Supervisors with two Democrats -Terra Lawson-Remer and Monica Montgomery Steppe- and two Republicans -Joel Anderson and Jim Desmond- agreement on a compromise that would decide the majority control of the Board seems unlikely so they must call a Special Election to fill the vacancy.

Under the Charter, a Special Election must be called between 76 and 90 days after the Board passes a Resolution calling the election. If the remaining members act at their first meeting on January 6th, an election would take place on a Tuesday between late March or early April 2025.

Vargas was just ending her second year as Chair of the Board and had indicated Vice-Chair Lawson-Remer would take the mostly ceremonial leadership post when their new terms are set to begin in January.

But with her sudden resignation, Vargas may cause most everything to stall at the Board meetings without any clear voting block that can put together at least three votes.

As soon as news of her pending resignation became public, politicians and possible candidates began making calls to donors to gauge their support.

Seats on the County Board of Supervisors do not come up for open election very often. 

Before Vargas was elected in 2020, Greg Cox held the seat for 15 years after having first served on the Chula Vista City Council and two terms as Mayor. 

A few names quickly emerged as possible candidates to replace Vargas with current elected officials topping the list given their name-recognition advantage and quick access to fundraising.

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David Alvarez

 

State Assemblyman David Alvarez was re-elected to his second two-year term in November and represents the entire City of Chula Vista which makes up over half of Vargas’ district. Alvarez received 113,768 votes in the November election.

Alvarez, a Democrat who previously served on San Diego City Council from 2010 to 2018, won a hard-fought special election in 2022 to replace Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez Fletcher who resigned her seat to take a job as a statewide union leader. Alvarez can raise money from Sacramento and statewide interest groups so would seem like the front-runner in a quick turn-around special election. 

If Alvarez were to win, a special election would have to be called to fill his vacancy, setting up another battle with two-term San Diego City Councilwoman Vivian Moreno most likely being the strongest to follow Alvarez in office as she did when she replaced him on the City Council. 

Chula Vista Mayor John McCann was elected in 2022 after previously serving 16 years on the Chula Vista City Council and four years on the Sweetwater Union High School District board. McCann, a Republican, won the citywide election in 2022 over a Democrat although the City has a two-to-one Democratic advantage in registered voters. Considered a moderate Republican, McCann could consolidate support from his Party and business interests who could mount a formidable campaign to try to flip control of the Board back to Republicans.

McCann received 33,992 votes in the November 2022 election.

If McCann were to win the seat, the remaining Chula Vista City Council members would be able to appoint someone to complete McCann’s term for the next two years but that person would not be able to run for Mayor in the 2026 election. The four Democrats on the Council would surely appoint a Democrat, marking the first time in history that the Chula Vista Council would be composed completely of Democrats. 

State Senator Steve Padilla, just elected to the Senate in November 2022, represents the entire city of Chula Vista within his vast district that stretches all the way to Coachella. Padilla previously served 10 years on the Chula Vista City Council and four years as Mayor from 2002 to 2006. A former Coronado Police officer before first being elected to the City Council in 1994, Padilla received 78,273 votes in his 2022 election.

If Padilla were to leave his Senate seat, the Governor would call a Special Election to fill the vacancy.

Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre, a Democrat with strong labor union support, led a successful move by the Imperial Beach Democratic Club to rescind their endorsement of Vargas just a month before last month’s election. Aguirre received 2,688 votes in her November 2022 election as Mayor. 

Although Aguirre has virtually no name identification in Chula Vista, she would most likely secure the endorsement of labor unions and the Democratic Party. If Aguirre were to replace Vargas, the remaining members of the Imperial Beach City Council would select someone to fill her vacancy.

A few non-elected officials could also decide to run for the seat expecting that a crowded field could make it easier to make the two-person run-off if no one secures a majority of the vote in the Special Election.

Although it would be more difficult for a non-elected official to raise money quickly enough for a special election, a few potential candidates’ names have emerged.

Former State Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez Fletcher, who resigned her seat in 2021 to take a job as the head of the California Labor Federation, could secure big financial support from labor unions. Her resignation created a special election that led to David Alvarez being elected to the Assembly.

Gonzalez Fletcher is the wife of former County Supervisor Nathan Fletcher who resigned after a female transit agency employee filed a lawsuit claiming Fletcher sexually harassed her and forced her firing. Fletcher, who continues to fight the lawsuit although he admitted having consensual contact with the woman, caused a special election to replace him that led to the election of San Diego City Councilwoman Monica Montgomery Steppe. Her election then caused another special election where her Chief of Staff, Henry Foster III, was elected to replace her. 

Former State Senator Ben Hueso, who lost to Vargas in her first campaign for County Supervisor in 2020, previously served five years on the San Diego City Council, 3 years in the State Assembly, and nine years in the State Senate. Hueso received 101,133 votes in the November 2020 election but lost to Vargas.

After leaving the Legislature in 2022, Hueso became a lobbyist and most recently has been supporting a proposed landfill in the Otay River Valley which could prove to be a political liability.  As a former member, Hueso has not had to register as a lobbyist and has not had to disclose his income from the past two years, but he would have to file a new financial disclosure as a candidate, opening himself up to scrutiny over his representation of special interests.

Ammar Campa-Najjar, who ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2018 and 2020, ran for Chula Vista Mayor in 2022 but lost to McCann. Campa-Najjar was criticized for not living within the City limits while running for Mayor after McCann’s campaign hired a private investigator to document that Campa-Najjar was living in San Diego with his girlfriend, US Congressman Sara Jacobs.

The race set a record for the most money ever spent in a race for Chula Vista Mayor.

After losing the Chula Vista Mayor’s race, Campa-Najjar, a Democrat, received a direct commission into the US Navy Reserves and recently completed his training to serve as a public information officer. 

In the end, the stakes will be high in this upcoming special election. The outcome will secure the majority control of the Board for the next two years when two more seats -Jim Desmond will term out and Monica Montgomery Steppe will face re-election- will be up for election.

Democrats were shut out of a majority control up until 2018 when Nathan Fletcher beat Republican former District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis and Democrats had a majority for the first time ever. The balance was up for grabs again during the 2022 Special Election to replace him where Democrat Montgomery Steppe defeated Republican Amy Reichert.

2025 could see one, two, three, even more special elections or appointments to fill vacancies depending on who runs and wins.

It seems that only one thing is certain in politics, and that is that nothing is certain in politics.