Off to the Races: In the Attorney General’s Race, Kamala Harris Has the Edge
The Democratic primary for Attorney General is an embarrassment of riches.
All of the candidates are sharp, bring slightly different sets of views, geography, and experience to the table, and have strong personal stories.
Yet like the race for insurance commissioner, none of the candidates have any significant name ID. As Kam Kuwata, Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s campaign guru who is advising candidate Rocky Delgadillo, told me: “The race is a three headed monster between undecided, I don’t know, and I don’t care.”
Even a campaign poll put out by Kamala Harris, widely perceived to be the frontrunner, showed that she had only 29 percent of the vote. That might be enough to win a five-way race, but it means that anything can happen between now and primary day. And it means whoever emerges victorious will have a lot of ground to make up to boost their standing among voters between June and November.
The winner will face one of three Republicans battling for their party’s nomination. Wide-ly acknowledged by Democrats to be the toughest to beat is Steve Cooley, who is in his third term as LA County’s District Attorney. Cooley is popular in heavily Democratic Los Angeles county, and the natural boost that Democrats typically get from that region could be erased. Whether he is conservative enough to survive the GOP primary, however, remains to be seen.
It’s difficult to stress just how important the Attorney General post is. Aside from dealing with crime and law enforcement issues, the AG also is responsible for preparing titles and summaries for ballot initiatives, consumer rights, and, to some degree, environmental policy.
Both current Attorney General Jerry Brown, as well as his predecessor, Bill Lockyer, have been activist AG’s who have maintained high profiles on this portfolio. Should the seat fall into Republican hands, California’s leadership on these issues would certainly be slowed.
The Candidates
1. Kamala Harris – On paper, Kamala Harris should have this race in the bag. She’s the only woman of the six candidates, is the darling of the Obama activist base of the party (she endorsed early and campaigned hard for Obama during the California primary, which he lost to Hillary Clinton), and has a rock solid base in San Francisco, which typically has a disproportionately high turnout for Democratic primaries. Harris also has raised big bucks, though her “burn rate” of spending is significant and she has just $1.4 million in the bank. Her own polling shows a double-digit lead over the next closest candidate. She also has the most endorsements in the field, including recent backing by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and got a boost last week when the backed her over two LA area- candidates. She’s also picked up the endorsements of the Sacramento Bee and San Francisco Chronicle.
Yet for all those advantages, Harris didn’t pull away from the pack when she had the chance. Law enforcement hasn’t embraced her candidacy (she opposes the death penalty). She also has been dogged lately by nagging headlines involving San Francisco’s crime lab, leaving her vulnerable to attacks by her rivals. Rumors also continue to swirl about a possible independent expenditure against her by law enforcement groups. Her campaign consultant is the ever-tough Ace Smith; Brian Brokaw, a veteran of the Angelides campaign, is at the rudder as campaign manager. Harris has the potential of pulling away from the field in the next few weeks as voters start to focus and her long list of endorsers work their voting blocs. http://www.kamalaharris.org
2. Chris Kelly – Newcomer Chris Kelly, the former privacy officer for Facebook, would like nothing better than to make this a two-way race between him and Kamala Harris. And he may have the resources to do it. In recent weeks, Kelly has dumped $8 million into his campaign, and he has $3.5 million cash on hand (the Harris campaign derides him as the “mini-Meg” for this self-funding). More money is probably coming. Kelly has been nipping at Harris for months now, pummeling her record (Google “Kamala Harris” and you’ll get directed to Kelly’s attack web-site on Harris, complete with video), and there’s no love lost between the two campaign camps. After ignoring the attacks, the Harris campaign has accused Kelly of running away from his involvement in Facebook’s privacy policy mess and being unqualified for the office. Nonetheless, Kelly also has been running an aggressive online campaign, complete with online petitions supporting Obama’s health care plan and attacking the Arizona immigration plan. He’s also positioned him slightly to the right of the other contenders, which might serve him well in the general election, if he makes it there. Kelly’s problem, like all the candidates, is that no one knows who he is. Unlike the elected officials running for the AG slot, Kelly has no base. His endorsement list is particularly thin. Kelly has spent $200,000+ on polling, which presumably has told him what he has to say and who he needs to target to win. Long-time campaign pro Katie Merrill, who is running his campaign with the help of some other top name Democratic consultants, could help get him there, particularly if he’s the only candidate to go on TV in final stretch of this campaign. http://www.kelly2010.com/
3. (tie) Rocky Delgadillo – In a field of little-known candidates Rocky Delgadillo has the highest name ID in the vote-rich LA media market. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he probably has the highest negatives. The Los Angeles Times and local TV skewered Delgadillo while he was in office. He apologized for his mistakes and moved on. The question remains whether voters will, and if their memories have faded. As his strategists point out, 45 percent of the primary vote is expected to be in the LA market, and 30 percent of the primary vote will be from Latino voters (70 percent of those from Southern California). Add those two statistics together and you can see a road to victory in a multi-candidate race. The Delgadillo campaign, managed by Kam Kawata, has had a slow start and few endorsements. Still, he received 37 percent when he ran for the post four years ago, though that campaign was better financed than this effort. He has just over $1.1 million in the bank. http://www.4rocky.com
Ted Lieu – Term-limited Assemblymember Ted Lieu is the dark horse in this race. His South Bay Assembly district is about the same size as San Francisco County, his Asian surname could be an advantage, and he has a ballot label – military prosecutor – that could have wide appeal, particularly among the senior set that votes in large numbers. The hard-working Lieu is strong on the stump, with a heartfelt personal story about immigration and public service. Lieu made a name for himself in the legislature as the most outspoken critic of banks and foreclosure laws. Unfortunately, this isn’t exactly the year where it’s an advantage in being a member of the California Assembly. Lieu has a solid number of endorsements (one of three to share SEIU’s backing), including some from law enforcement. His campaign consultant is Gale Kaufman, whose is skillful in targeting primary voters. Lieu has about $1.1 million in the bank. http://www.tedlieu.com
Alberto Torrico — Alberto Torrico is one of the nicest guys on the planet. The Democratic leader of the Assembly, Torrico was responsible for getting things done on the floor and resolving prickly policy decisions for legislative Democrats. It’s a thankless job, and Torrico excelled at it. He also authored his fair share of key policy issues, and was heavily involved in both the Latino and Asian-Pacific Islander Caucus. If it weren’t for term limits, Torrico would have enjoyed a long and successful career in the Capitol. Torrico, from the San Jose area, jumped into the AG’s race in the hopes of being the preferred candidate of law enforcement. He’s done an excellent job of nailing down key endorsements in that community. He’s also staked out positions attacking Big Oil and supporting higher education. Torrico is one of three candidates from the Bay Area. But despite his strong personal story, the campaign hasn’t quite caught fire and he suffers from being a legislator in a year where that’s a liability. Eric Jaye, his consultant, might have some tricks up his sleeves to put the campaign on the map in the final weeks if the top contenders stumble. Torrico too has about $1 million in the bank. http://www.albertotorrico.com
6. Pedro Nava – You just gotta love somebody who wears a “Vote for Pedro” button on his lapel. The son of immigrants, Assemblymember Nava built a solid reputation in the Legislature for his work on a number of issues, including his opposition to oil drilling – a topic very much in the news these days. It’s one of the reasons he has strong backing from the Sierra Club and other environmentalists. Nava has dumped most of his campaign money on slate cards. He has just $44,000 cash on hand though, making him a long shot. http://www.pedronava.com/
Steven Maviglio is a Sacramento-based public affairs and political consultant. He is the former Deputy Chief of Staff to Speakers Karen Bass and Fabian Nunez. This article originally appeared in the California Majority Report. Reprinted from the California Progress Report http://www.californiaprogressreport.com