Preview, prediction, and analysis of tomorrow night’s Jr. Middleweight matchup

By Steve Galindo III

    Tomorrow night, at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, boxing’s pound-for-pound best fighter, Manny Pacquiao will face Antonio Margarito for the World Boxing Council’s version of the Jr. Middleweight crown. The popular consensus heading into the bout is that Pacquiao will make quick work of the bigger, slower, flat-footed fighter from Tijuana. That train of thought is reflected in the 5-1 betting odds in Pacquiao’s favor.

    For many of you out there thinking that this fight against Antonio Margarito will be a cakewalk for the Filipino dynamo, think again. Antonio Margarito is a man on a mission, a man seeking redemption from a sport in which he has become persona non grata.

    For many Mexican boxing fans, it was hard to comprehend the thought of Margarito as somewhat of a boxing pariah. After all, this was the man who just two short years ago had the boxing world singing his praises as he was well on his way of becoming the next great Mexican superstar. He was the epitome of a true Mexican warrior, a man who had built his reputation on punishing opponents with relentless pressure, and thudding shots. But his transgressions on the evening of January 24, 2009 would forever change everyone’s perception of him.

    On that night, just moments before his match against “Sugar” Shane Mosley, Margarito was caught with an illegal pad that was inserted in his hand wraps. Further tests would show that the pad contained elements of a plaster-of-paris-like substance. With a record crowd of 20, 820 fans in attendance at L.A.’s Staples Center, the fight would go on as scheduled. In what many believe to be a divine act of karma, Mosley pounded Margarito into submission that night (wining by a nine round technical knockout).

    On February 10, 2009, just 17 days after the fight with Mosley, the California State Athletic Commission would go on to revoke the licenses of both Margarito, and his trainer Javier Capetillo. The suspensions would last for a period of one year. As a result, Margarito dismissed Capetillo, his longtime trainer and friend- as he embarked on a period of uncertainty. Throughout his ordeal, Margarito denied any wrongdoing. During this time, most writers castigated Margarito by painting him as a cheater, while coming up with clever names such as Marga-Cheato. Writer Jim Bagg of The Ring Magazine took it a step further, and dubbed Margarito as the Plastered Bastard. 

    Despite the criticism, Margarito remained rather reticent on the matter. He remained a hot topic, on boxing websites, message boards, and even started drawing comparisons to former Puerto Rican welterweight Luis Resto. In 1986, Resto spent 2 ½ years in prison for removing the padding of his gloves in his 1983 fight against Billy Collins Jr. One of Margarito’s staunchest critics during his suspension was his one-time former sparring partner, and President of Golden Boy Promotions, Oscar De La Hoya. “I love this sport, I have passion for this sport, and I don’t want to see anybody try to cheat the sport” De La Hoya said.

    Without a license, and with a new trainer (Robert Garcia) in his corner, Margarito returned to the only place that would allow him to fight: Mexico. On May 8, 2010, after more than a year away from the ring, Margarito moved up in weight to the Jr. Middleweight division, and defeated Roberto Garcia (no relation to his trainer) by way of unanimous decision. On August 26, 2010, one week after his application for a license was denied by the California State Athletic Commission (by a vote of 5-1), the state of Texas granted Margarito a license, paving the way for the mega fight with Pacquiao. Margarito is now eager to erase away the memory of his suspension, and believes he can do so with a victory.

Mexican Support

    Outside of the Mexican community, Antonio Margarito is about as popular as a Democrat on Election Day. Needless to say, many non-Mexicans are scratching their heads as to why exactly many Mexicanos are still rooting for the disgraced fighter. The current state of Mexican boxing, along with Pacquiao’s dominance over Mexican fighters has made Margarito a favorite among Mexican aficionados. In the last five years alone, Manny Pacquiao has amassed a record of (9-0 5 KOs) against Mexican fighters. In a sense, Margarito has become Mexico’s last line of defense in its effort to defeat a man that is known as the Mexicutioner.         

Say hello to the bad guy:

Antonio “Tijuana Tornado” Margarito
 Age: 32
Stance: Orthodox
Height: 5’11″
Reach: 73″

Tough Talk: Antonio Margarito speaks…

    On Manny Pacquiao: What he has done no other fighter has done. Coming from a small weight and moving up to this heavier weight. I have to admire someone that can keep the power going and he is going up and he’s a great boxer.

    On Pacquiao’s dominance over Mexican fighters: Pacquiao has stopped some of the best Mexican fighters in the world, but he won’t be able to stop this Mexican.

    On his physical advantage over Pacquiao: I couldn’t tell you anyone that comes close to his style or the way he fights. I never fought anyone like that or anyone that comes close. I see his speed, I know he is a fast guy but he is a smaller guy also. I see some things there, but I would never consider it an easy fight or think I have big advantages over him because I don’t.

    Keys to victory: Margarito will win if… He starts fast, applies pressure, and goes to the body. It is no secret that Antonio Margarito is notorious for being a slow starter- most of his loses can be attributed to that fact. Slow starts (amongst other things) proved to be his downfall in fights against Shane Mosley, and Paul Williams. Miguel Cotto found success in the first half of his fight against Margarito as well. Margarito can ill afford to come out of the gate cold against a whirlwind like Manny Pacquiao. Margarito must mount an early attack if he is to have any chance of defeating Pacquiao. His best bet will be to cut-off the ring, and bully his smaller opponent into a corner. Once in a corner, Margarito will have the opportunity to tee-off on the Filipinos body.

The Good Guy:

Manny “PacMan” Pacquiao
Age: 31
Stance: Southpaw
Heights: 5’6’ ½
Reach: 67″

Tough Talk: Manny Pacquiao speaks…

    On Antonio Margarito: I know he is going to try his best to win the fight. My concern is what an exciting fight we can give to the people who are going to watch. I am hoping we can give a good fight and make people happy by our performance.

    On his many distractions: For me it’s not a distraction as long as I train hard. You train hard and do your job there is no distraction about that. Nothing to worry about.

    On balancing boxing with his Congressional duties: I have time for politics and I have time for boxing. Right now my focus is still into boxing. Once I get into training there is full focus on the fight so I am ready. No retirement, not yet. I can still fight.

    Keys to victory: Manny Pacquiao will win if… he utilizes his speed, footwork, and establishes an inside game.  In preparing for his bout with Margarito, Pacquiao spent a great bulk of his training camp focusing on regaining his signature speed by sparring with jr. welterweight champion Amir Khan, and lightweight David Rodela. The time spent should serve him well as he will be facing one of the slowest fighters in the sport (just call it the pugilistic version of the Tortoise and the Hare). In this case the key to winning the fight for Pacquiao will be to exhibit excellent lateral movement, and not get caught-up in the clutches of the much bigger Margarito. Lastly, Pacquiao will have to establish an inside game. Despite the fact that Margarito stands at 5’11″ he does not fight like a big man, meaning he does not use his height, and reach as advantages. He makes no use of his jab, which is an effective tool that taller fighters use to keep smaller fighters at bay. Instead, he crouches down, and fights down to the level of his opponents. This will allow Pacquiao to get on the inside where he can do some major damage. 

Fact vs. Fiction

    With a win over Pacq-uiao, Margarito will clear his name for good: Fiction– Margarito can defeat Manny Pacquiao, and Floyd May-weather Jr., and fans will still be suspicious. Nothing that Margarito does inside of the ring can erase away the memory of the hand wrap scandal. Unfortunately for Margarito, there will always be an aura of suspicion around him.

    A New Style that consists of a focus on timing, and counterpunching will bring Margarito success against Pacquiao: Fiction– There is a chance that we might see a more subdued attack from the Tijuana Tornado. Word out of training camp is that Margarito might take more of a tactical approach against Pacquiao. You can’t teach old dog new tricks, or in boxing terms, you can’t turn Margarito into a tactician such as Juan Manuel Marquez overnight. His best bet is to be the Tornado of old, and bring the non-stop relentless pressure that has made him a three-time world champion.

Pacquiao’s many distractions will prove to be his downfall: Fiction– Pacquiao trainer, Freddie Roach has gone on record as to saying that this training camp has ranked among the worst ever, based on his fighter’s many distractions. In the past five years, Manny Pacquiao has appeared in 5 motion pictures, 15 television shows, and has released a total of 2 albums. What does this have to do with anything? Well, all the above would qualify as major distractions for any fighter, yet despite all of these endeavors, Pacquiao has yet to lose focus in a fight. There is no reason to believe that he will lose focus here.

Gran Predicción

    Antonio Margarito is a true Mexican warrior with nothing to lose, and everything to gain. Those ingredients make for a dangerous fighter. I believe that his superb conditioning, along with his sturdy chin will take him the distance, but in the end I have to go with speed, and skill. PACQUIAO by Decision –S.G. III

Local Fans Weigh-in

    Pacquiao is the more talented of the fighters and he will win this match, but can Margarito go the distance? If he does it will be a great fight to watch and finally the pay per view money will be worth it to tune into a fight that goes longer than five or six rounds. Margarito has the advantage with his height and arm reach over Manny Pacquiao, but he is not the first boxer to have this advantage and leave a loser. There is no such thing as a sure bet in boxing but Pacquiao is the next best thing. PACQUIAO by K.O. –Christopher Naranjo, 24, Chula Vista, Ca

    “Pacquiao is much faster. Pacquiao is going to be running around, and it will be hard for Margarito to hit him, eventually Margarito will get tired and Pacquiao will knock him out.”  PACQUIAO by TKO in round 10. – Jaime Bermudez, 38, San Ysidro

    I think Pac Mac will win in the 10 round by K.O, his speed is too much for Margarito and he doesn’t get tired, so Pac man will have to break Margarito down round by round because he is bigger. Margarito was slaughtered by Mosley and his speed, and Pac mans speed is just as fast and he’s even more aggressive. Margarito will try to push the smaller Pac man around but that won’t help, pacman is the faster, smarter, and better fighter. Margarito’s only chance is to stun pacman with a hook and go for the kill, but I don’t see that happening. Score another win for the Mexican asesino.

PACQUIAO by K.O. – Jaime “Super Dave” Medrano, 33, San Diego

What: Pacquiao vs. Margarito

    Who: Manny ‘Pacman’ Pacquiao vs. Antonio ‘Tijuana Tornado’ Margarito (for the vacant World Boxing Council Jr. Middleweight title); Welterweights: Mike Jones (22-0,18 KOs) vs. Jesus Soto-Karass (24-4-3, 16 KOs);  Super Bantamweights: Guillermo Rigondeaux vs. Ricardo Cordoba (for the interim World Boxing Association Super bantamweight title); Lightweights: Brandon Rios (25-0-1,18 KOs) vs. Omri Lowther (14-2, 10 KOs)

    Where: Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas
    When: Saturday, 6 p.m.
    TV: Pay-Per-View (suggested retail price $54.95)
    Caliente Line: Manny Pacquiao -450, Antonio Margarito + 300

Questions/Comments: Steve Galindo III can be reached @ stevegalindo3@gmail.com