A new poll of likely voters in coastal San Diego finds strong opposition to a proposed City sales tax increase, homelessness ranking as the top concern, and Mayor Todd Gloria receiving a lower favorability rating than President Donald Trump.

The poll conducted over the past two weeks shows 64% of respondents oppose a November election ballot measure to raise the City’s sales tax, with only 25% supporting the measure. A similar one-cent sales tax increase, Measure E, failed in November 2024 by only 3,506 votes.

Respondents cited homelessness as their top concern, followed by housing affordability, and the City’s fiscal issues.

When asked whether they believe the City is headed in the right or wrong direction, only 19% said it was headed in the right direction, while 64% said it was headed in the wrong direction.

The poll respondents also expressed negative views of both Mayor Gloria and President Trump.

Gloria had a 20% favorable rating and a 64% unfavorable rating among respondents, while Trump had a 22% favorable rating and a 69% unfavorable rating. Among independent voters, Gloria's unfavorable rating exceeded his favorable rating by 57 percentage points, while Trump's unfavorable rating exceeded his favorable rating by 44 points.

Poll respondents were nearly evenly divided over a proposed redevelopment of the Sports Arena site in the Midway area.

The Midway Rising proposal calls for roughly 4,250 housing units, including 2,000 affordable apartments and about 2,250 market-rate units, commercial spaces, and a new 16,000-seat sports and entertainment facility to replace the current Sports Arena.

The poll showed 35% of respondents were in favor of the project and 36% were opposed, with another nearly 30% either undecided or they didn’t know enough about the project to have an opinion.

Among respondents who expressed concerns about the project, traffic congestion in the already crowded neighborhood was the most frequently cited issue. Other concerns included the proposed 250-foot building height, public subsidies to an out-of-town billionaire, and the developer's reported $750,000 in political contributions.

The project’s original developer, Brad Termini, and his wife, gave $100,000 to Todd Gloria’s 2020 campaign for Mayor before his Midway Rising team was selected for the project, then Termini donated another $650,000 to a 2024 ballot measure that overturned the voter-approved 30’ height limit in the Midway area that made the project legal to build. A court ruling later invalidate that ballot measure, leaving the 30' height limit in place, although state law may now exempt the taller development under new affordable housing laws.

Although Termini initially committed to the City in writing not to sell or flip any of the project to another developer, Los Angeles billionaire Stan Kroenke now has a 95% equity stake in the project. Kroenke, the owner of the Los Angeles Rams football team who recently agreed to purchase the Anaheim Angels baseball team for a record $4 billion, owns more than 2.7 million acres of land, over 300 commercial properties, and multiple major sports teams and venues. 

The Midway Rising project has asked the City and the County to provide millions of dollars in public bond financing to make the project work after Termini said that the “project is not financially feasible without getting some of the infrastructure paid for.”

The poll also asked voters about the two candidates running for San Diego City Council to replace termed-limited Councilwoman Dr. Jen Campbell; former Coronado Mayor Richard Bailey and Deputy City Attorney Nicole Crosby.

Bailey, who moved to San Diego early this year and dropped his Republican Party registration, is opposed to the upcoming sales tax increase ballot measure, has criticized Gloria and the City over its structural budget deficit, and fought against the City’s trash fee and Balboa Park parking fees. In July, the City reached a settlement to a pending lawsuit by agreeing to remove the parking fees and reduce the trash fees.

Richard Bailey

Crosby, a Democrat who serves as a criminal prosecutor in the San Diego City Attorney’s office, supported the previous sales tax measure that failed in 2024, supported the empty home tax that failed on the 2026 primary ballot, and supports the November ballot sales tax increase. Crosby is running on a platform to prioritize public safety, fix the City’s broken infrastructure, and find common-sense solutions to the region’s housing issues.

Nicole Crosby

In the initial head-to-head question, Bailey led Crosby by 6 percentage points. After respondents were given additional information about the two candidates, Bailey's lead increased to nearly 30 percentage points over Crosby, although about 29% of the respondents remained undecided.

The poll, conducted by an experienced political consulting company, questioned 438 voters, and has a reported margin of error of 4.6%.

The General Election will be held November 3, with mail ballots beginning to arrive the week of October 5.